ESTE4Space

ESTE4Space was developed for safety analyses and environmental impacts assessment for future space missions with nuclear/radionuclide power sources.

Primary goal is to utilize the ESTE4Space tool in the frame of nuclear safety launch approval process, for assessment of effective doses to the most exposed members of inhabitants and health effect risk.

ESTE4Space – system and modules

Based on the assumption of the source term, the ESTE4Space models short-term (days) and long-term (years) dispersion of radionuclides in the atmospheric and marine environments and calculates a whole set of radiological impact parameters necessary for the assessment of potential consequences to population and to the environment. Numerical weather prediction data for the entire Earth, from ground level to an altitude of 90 km, are available either as archived data from past years or as current numerical weather prediction data. Similarly, numerical marine current data for the entire planet, as well as archived data, are available for analyzing the radionuclide dispersion in the marine environment. The final task of the analyses performed by the ESTE4Space tool is radiological impact assessment in the territory of interest, which can span any area on the globe, including the surroundings of the launch pad.

The ESTE4Space tool has been developed for direct application in safety analyses of future space missions. It is also designed for use in crisis centers to assess radiological consequences to the biosphere in the event of real emergencies related to past or future missions involving nuclear power systems. In the case of safety analyses, the ESTE4Space tool can be used for probabilistic analyses and probabilistic assessments of radiological consequences. When the probability of event and the probability of consequences are combined, then the total potential health effect risk (in compliance with the requirements of U.S. regulations) or the effective doses of the most exposed inhabitants associated with the worst meteorological situations with a very low occurrence probability (in compliance with requirements of the French regulations) will be the final results provided by the ESTE4Space tool.

For more information, see the abstract presented at the 76th International Astronautical Congress in Sydney, Australia: 

ESTE4Space paper for IAC 2025, Sydney